Water vapor is the strongest greenhouse gas; unlike other greenhouse gases, it is controlled principally by temperature. Sunspots at Solar Maximum and Minimum. Please share the post as many times as you can. He calculated by hand that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would ultimately lead to a 5–6 °C increase in global temperature – a figure remarkably close to current predictions. Numerous other parametrization schemes are now being included and improved in state-of-the-art models, including sea ice, soil characteristics, atmospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. We still urgently need to improve the modelling and observation of many processes to refine climate predictions, especially on seasonal and regional scales. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. We do not need to predict the exact sequence of weather in order to predict future climate, just as in thermodynamics we do not need to predict the path of every molecule to quantify the average properties of gases. Human activities can also influence climate by changing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Box 1.2), altering the concentrations of aerosols and altering the reflectivity of Earth’s surface by changing land cover. The climate system's sensitivity to incoming and outgoing radiation is why scientists are so keenly interested in measuring how much energy comes from the Sun on an ongoing basis. Both will release additional CO2 to the atmosphere, leading, in turn, to further warming. Observational records indicate that 11 of the past 12 years are the warmest since reliable records began around 1850. he odds of such warm years happening in sequence purely by chance are exceedingly small. Methane levels are roughly two and a half times preindustrial levels, and nitrous oxide levels are around 20 percent higher. Such uncertainties led to a best estimate given in the third IPCC report in 2001 of global warming in the range 1.4–5.8 °C by 2100 compared with 1990. Oceans, on the other hand, will warm more slowly than the land due to their large thermal inertia. (With reply by Solanki et al.). Animal waste and nitrogen fertilization of soil are the largest contributors. These gases are increasing faster than they are removed from the atmosphere. Particles measuring only 2.5 microns (approximately 1/30th the average width of a human hair) lodge deeply into the lungs. Wikipedia is not an acceptable resource. You will need to make sure that as you write that you properly translate concepts and topics into your own thoughts. The Princeton model predicted that doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would warm the troposphere – the lowest level of the atmosphere – but also cool the much higher stratosphere, while producing the greatest warming towards the poles, in agreement with Callendar’s early calculations. polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air around Earth’s North Pole. Wildfires are unplanned burns in any natural environment, like a forest or a grassland. But how do we make predictions of climate change, and why should we trust them? In the top pair of images, the Sun’s surface is seen in visible wavelengths during a period of high solar activity when sunspots are numerous (left), and during the low activity, when there are few sunspots (right). Global temperature is an average of air temperature recordings from weather stations on land and sea as well as some satellite measurements. In this analogy, the Sun is the main source of power for the machine, exceeding the next largest source by almost 10,000 times. The topography of the Earth’s surface, its frictional properties and its reflectivity also vary on scales smaller than the resolution of the model. Please work with your campus librarian to find reliable sources. For a scientist studying climate change, “eureka” moments are unusually rare. The largest sources are wood burning in stoves and fireplaces, livestock digestive systems, and decomposition in landfills. We are at a critical point in history where not only are we having a discernible effect on the Earth’s climate, but we are also developing the capability to predict this effect. In comparison, if Earth was shrunk to the size of a basketball its atmosphere would be about as thick as a sheet of plastic wrap. Antarctic sea ice is nearly a geographic opposite of its Arctic counterpart because Antarctica is a landmass covered in ice surrounded by an ocean, and the Arctic is an ocean of sea ice surrounded by land. The timeframe is important because each gas has a different rate at which it is removed from the atmosphere. The reality of the water vapour feedback is supported by recent observations and analyses. Spring snow cover, which decreases in concert with rising spring temperatures in northern midlatitudes, dropped abruptly around 1988 and has remained low since. "The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM): Science Results," Solar Physics, 230, 1, pp. However, certain gases present in smaller quantities absorb infrared radiation flowing upwards from Earth’s surface and re-radiate it in all directions, including back downwards. The ocean is crucial for climate because it controls the flux of water vapour and latent heat into the atmosphere, as well as storing large amounts of heat and CO2. Although the report finds that some of these further changes are now inevitable, its analysis also confirms that the future, particularly in the longer term, remains largely in our hands—the magnitude of expected change depends on what humans choose to do about greenhouse gas emissions. Because of the strong recent warming, the updated trend over 1906 to 2005 is now 0.74 ± 0.18 degree C. Note that the 1956 to 2005 trend alone is 0.65 ± 0.15 degree C, emphasizing that the majority of 20th-century warming occurred in the past 50 years. The greenhouse effect is the way in which heat is trapped close to the surface of the Earth by “greenhouse gases.” These heat-trapping gases can be thought of as a blanket wrapped around the Earth, which keeps it toastier than it would be without them.

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