But a crucial element in the region’s appeal is proximity to the well-preserved, old Ontario town centres enveloped by the sprawl and to the prosperous farmland that’s still adjacent to it. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited. September 11, 2019, Adam van Koeverden, the federal Liberal candidate for Milton, watches a magic show at the Milton Farmers Market in August (Photograph by Mark Blinch).

And so Raitt is a different sort of rarity—a Conservative who brings her own proven name-recognition factor to this campaign. But he says that doesn’t make the GTA a “small-c conservative bastion.” Peterson points out that his riding hosts a big annual Pride parade. Pocketbook issues matter, naturally, to the mortgage-paying families in his sort of riding. But can the Conservatives make a convincing case that their policies would help the typical suburban family save more? “People had made their minds up about Harper [in 2015], and they were not shy to let you know. But Aurora-Newmarket is in York region, where 70 per cent had a post-secondary education, and Milton is in Halton region, where it’s 75 per cent.

Population and dwelling counts, for Canada, provinces and territories, and federal electoral districts (2013 Representation Order), 2016 and 2011 censuses – 100% data About This table presents the 2016 and 2011 population counts and the 2016 dwelling counts for Canada and federal electoral districts by a selected province or territory. coast, to make sure its planned expansion went ahead. Visit thestar.com for full coverage of your riding and the 2015 Canadian election. But the wider GTA dynamic might well prove to be more important. Corn on the cob is free. Summer polls setting the stage for the fall campaign showed NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh—whose home base is in Brampton in the GTA, although he represents a B.C. Gord Krantz, 82, who has been Milton’s mayor since 1980, shows up and mingles easily with folks who already know him. He’s not bad at retail politics, though. Yet van Koeverden says he’s not thinking about any of that. This time around, with the party dinged up by four years in power, what’s on offer inevitably looks more battle-tested than fresh-faced. “What they were struggling with was whether to give me another shot as the local rep. At any mention of political considerations such as vote splitting, seat projections, winnable ridings or demographic analysis, van Koeverden makes a face as if he had just pulled a muscle.

Of course, voting by new Canadians isn’t monolithic or easily predicted. Two mornings after his fundraiser, he’s out on Milton’s classic old-Ontario main street, which is closed to traffic for a Saturday farmers’ market. According to the latest census, the city’s population swelled 31 per cent to 110,128 between 2011 and 2016, making it the fastest-growing in Ontario while skewing younger and more diverse. His father immigrated from Holland. Glancing at the trim, dark-haired guy in the booth at the back of a retail-plaza restaurant in Milton, Ont., a lot of Canadians might have paused for a moment. Average dad with car saleman’s grin drops kids off at school, Jagmeet Singh’s chance to turn things around, Canada’s federal election campaign starts on Sept. 11. Depending on the significance of a boundary change, an electoral district's name may change as well. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Van Koeverden is watching the place fill up with supporters who are coming out to a fundraiser for his bid to win the Milton riding for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the Oct. 21 election. In fact, the incumbent MP in Milton, Conservative Lisa Raitt, bucked the 2015 wave of Liberals ousting Tories across the GTA. Read more about cookies here. It’s Adam van Koeverden, gold medal-winning kayaker from the 2004 Olympics in Athens, who carried the Canadian flag at the opening ceremonies for the Beijing games four years later. This number will expand to 34 for the next federal election. “I’ve just got a lot of worries on my mind,” she says, “as I’m trying to launch my kids into the next stage of their life, and I’m a caregiver.”, A formidable incumbent and a strong contender make it tempting to frame Milton in isolation. Back in 2015, Trudeau’s roster of first-time aspirants to federal office was flush with them. When this story went to press, polling analyst Philippe Fournier’s 338Canada seat-projection model wasn’t projecting any wins at all in the GTA for the NDP. The day after van Koeverden’s fundraiser, his rival, Lisa Raitt, drove into that countryside to the farm that was hosting this year’s Halton Plowmen’s Association plowing contest. Van Koeverden doesn’t shy away from putting his Olympic glory out there. And then there are other markers of identity that tend to influence voting. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives cleaned up in the Toronto suburbs in 2011—including in ridings where visible minorities made up the majority—before Trudeau’s Liberals took 24 of those seats in 2015, leaving the Tories clinging to just six.

Raitt, who originally hails from Cape Breton, also seems at ease.

Not quite a full-blown celebrity, but that face definitely rings a bell. Loewen argues that Trudeau might have the tougher task of persuading voters to credit the Liberals for strong job growth.

365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4. That’s the No. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. The number of Ontario ridings — and MPPs — will grow from 107 to 122, while federally there will be 121 ridings in the province. Raitt says she’s hearing a lot less about that since the Ford government changed gears, especially on its bungled handling of autism funding, with a late-June cabinet shuffle. She settles in for an interview at one of the picnic tables set up in a cleared-out barn, first making sure that her husband, who has Alzheimer’s disease, has his lunch and is sitting beside her. He got a lot of unhappy emails from his environmentally conscious voters when the federal government bought the Trans Mountain oil pipeline, which extends from Alberta to the B.C. “We’ve always had Ottawa’s voice in Milton, but Milton’s never had a voice in Ottawa. Peterson, 48, isn’t running for re-election. Election updates for federal ridings in Toronto and the GTA. “I’m not focused on national things; I’m not focused on which ridings we’re going to pick up. Unlike van Koeverden, she doesn’t mind talking politics. This has been the case, Loewen points out, even though demographic factors—such as where immigrants come from, the mix of older and younger voters, education levels—vary considerably among the ridings. Ontario getting 14 new MPPs to match federal ridings plus a bonus MPP in the North, tap here to see other videos from our team.

© Copyright 2020 St. Joseph Communications. “My first obligation is to meet people and listen to them.”. And elections would be dull without interesting individuals, including at least a few with glamorous credentials, putting their names on the ballots. At its early stages, she says this campaign feels, in one important respect, more like 2011, when the Tories won a majority, than 2015, when Trudeau turfed them from office. But he bristles a bit at what he perceives as a hint that athletic experience might not be a solid basis for politics.

“They do have a big uniform swing; if you do well in one, you do well in the others.”.

We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. “You’ve got a lot of correlation across those ridings,” says Peter Loewen, a political science professor at the University of Toronto. The Liberals say they want to make sure the “unique needs of the north” are protected with one more elected provincial representative than at the federal level. Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles.

There were lots of complaints at the door,” she says. We encountered an issue signing you up. It’s whether that MP is part of a wave of Liberals who have held Toronto’s suburbs or one of a bunch of Conservatives who have recaptured them. There are 87 ridings in provincial elections.

The number of Ontario ridings — and MPPs — will grow from 107 to 122, while federally there will be 121 ridings in the province. Electoral district boundaries are adjusted to reflect population changes after each decennial census.

I’m focused on Milton,” he says during an interview in that restaurant booth, occasionally interrupted by well-wishers wandering back to shake his hand. Either way works. This article appears in print in the October 2019 issue of Maclean’s magazine with the headline, “Battleground Ontario.” Subscribe to the monthly print magazine here. When he was growing up in neighbouring Oakville, the region was far less diverse. This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Most of the assembled rural residents have deep family roots in the region. There was an error, please provide a valid email address. “The more educated you are, the more likely you are to vote Liberal, and suburbia tends to have educated people,” Peterson says. Peter Kent was re-elected for the Tories in Thornhill. Experienced political strategists tend not to talk like that. Please try again. So it’s worth noting that van Koeverden’s fundraiser was held at an upscale, casual eatery specializing in halal Middle Eastern food, where no alcohol is served, and there’s a designated prayer room by the restrooms. He calls these the “my life” issues and lists the top-of-mind among them: health care, job security, saving for retirement. “I’m not interested in politics. Van Koeverden says the best part of running for office so far has been getting to know South Asian families. Depending on where the battle lines are drawn on the map, the so-called Greater Toronto Area, or GTA, encompasses 30 ridings. Their signature promise is to get rid of the Liberals’ carbon tax—even though most taxpayers get back more in the federal income-tax rebate than what the tax adds to their energy costs. Then the mom takes a phone pic of her three kids with the candidate. Eyes are shielded from late-summer sun by trucker-style caps. As for her own persona, she says that at 51, with one kid in high school and another at university, and her husband’s health to consider, she shares practical concerns with plenty of voters. He’s a rarity in this fall’s campaign—a bona fide star newcomer to politics. Raitt gamely takes her turn at the wheel of a lovingly maintained 1953 Super A tractor to plow a few furrows.

Despite that promising educational profile, Peterson estimates that the reliable base of Liberal support in the GTA is around 25 per cent, a significant notch lower than the rock-ribbed Conservative base, which he says is around 32 per cent.

They have swung en masse from Liberal to Conservative and back again in recent elections, making this by far the biggest concentration of tantalizingly up-for-grabs seats anywhere on the national map of 338 ridings. (He also has a degree from Hamilton’s McMaster University and has worked in management consulting and sports broadcasting.) Newspapers Limited, One Yonge Street, 4th floor, Toronto, ON, M5E 1E6. Liberals point to low unemployment; Conservatives emphasize anxieties about taxes and savings. Still, sometimes a strong candidate can make the difference in an unusually tight race. Government sources say Premier Kathleen Wynne will announce plans Thursday to match federal riding boundary changes, except in northern Ontario where the Liberals want to maintain one additional provincial seat. He is arguably the highest-profile new recruit anywhere in the must-win suburban swath surrounding Toronto. Through the first 30 days of campaigning the Liberal and Conservative leaders made appearances in ridings in the GTA in close to half of the days of the campaign.



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